A stagnate upper level weather pattern will allow for the risk of severe weather across the Plains states for the next several days. The focus area for thunderstorms will shift each day, but this pattern will keep the chances of severe weather through next Friday.
Focus on This Afternoon and Tonight (Saturday)
There are two areas that have a risk of severe thunderstorms today. NWS SPC has outlined the first slight risk area across eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming, while the second is across the southern High Plains from west Kansas into western Texas. The main threat is large hail and damaging winds for both areas. However an isolated Tornado is possible, mainly in western Kansas.
Sunday into Sunday Night
The focus area expands and shifts a little east for Sunday and into Sunday Night. NWS SPC has outlined the slight risk from North Dakota to the Big Bend region in Texas. The area in Texas extends east into the Waco and Austin areas. Large hail will be the primary threat especially across the Northern Plains as well as Texas.
Monday into Monday Night
The areas “under the gun” for severe thunderstorms on Monday focuses toward the Southern Plains from Kansas, Oklahoma and into Texas. Large hail is the main threat but a few tornadoes are possible, especially in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Tuesday through Friday
The pattern remains active for through next week. You can expect some changes to these forecasts as short range models help us further refine the areas of greatest risk. The area of concern for Tuesday is Nebraska/Iowa South into North Central Texas. For Wednesday, the risk shifts east to Missouri and Illinois. For Thursday, the risk moves back to Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and North Texas. Then finally on Friday the focus is Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Eastern Texas.
Rainfall for the next week
With the prolonged unsettled pattern, much of the country will see rain over the next week. The areas that have the potential of seeing several inches include the western mountains of Montana and northern Idaho, western Washington, much of the lower Missouri River Valley as well as the Mississippi River Valley and parts of central and eastern Texas. This is good news for farmers that already have fields planted this spring. But if you are still planting, the rain may impact your ability to be in the fields.
The East Coast will also have chances of a 1 to pockets of 3+ inches of rain for Today and into Sunday with a low off the Mid Atlantic. The risk of severe weather with this East Coast low is marginal.
For those that are outlined with the Slight risk of severe weather sometime over the next couple of days, we encourage you to remain weather aware and have ways to receive notifications, such as a NOAA Weather Radio, if the National Weather Service issues Watches or Warning.
If you will be out and about, know where your safe locations are in case you need to quickly take shelter. Also consider moving equipment, vehicles and other outdoor items inside when not in use as large hail can cause serious damage.
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.