The WxIntegrations team has reviewed the recent revised NOAA 2017 August Climate outlooks that were released on July 20, 2017. In this post, we wanted to highlight a few key trends. For more information, see video below where our CEO, Diane Cooper provides some additional details and insights on what we could see in August as well as how we expect for the remainder of July.
In general, the longer scale patterns continue to support the warm trend for most of the country. For precipitation, however, we are seeing limited signals of above normal precipitation potential for the Four Corners/Southwest and into Deep South Texas.
For temperatures, the warm trend will continue across much of the US. For parts of the Northern High Plains and into the Northwest we are seeing stronger bias for above normal temperatures. We are also seeing a slightly stronger bias along the Gulf Coast and into New England.
We do have a small area in the Four Corners area that we have Equal Chances (EC) which means we do not have a clear signal of above, below or normal temperatures.
For precipitation, the outlooks are showing slightly above normal changes of precipitation across far southern and southwestern Texas and expanding west into the Four Corner States, Wyoming, a small part of southeast Idaho, eastern Nevada, and far southeastern California. Otherwise, much of the country has Equal Chances (EC) of seeing above, below or normal precipitation in July.
A key challenge with summer outlooks is thunderstorms can produce localized heavy rain and they tend not be captured in the monthly outlooks. In addition, with challenges of hurricane forecasting, even though we are looking at a normal to above normal season, hurricanes are incorporated into the monthly outlooks.
For a more information and a check on the current drought situation, activity in the tropics and a look at what we expect through the end of July and the outlooks for August, see our 2017 August Climate outlook video.
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.
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