Severe Thunderstorm potential exists from the Ohio River Valley, Central and Southern Mississippi River Valley and into the Deep South this Afternoon and Evening.

Atmospheric Conditions

A low pressure system centered in the Western Great Lakes along with the trailing cold front in the Mississippi River Valley will trigger thunderstorms across a large part of the Central US this afternoon and into this evening.

surfacemap

The low is supported by some strong upper level winds and ample moisture. Satellite Expert – Sheldon Kusselson provides an analysis in the graphic below.

sheldonupper air explaination

Sheldon highlights in the picture on the left that moisture from the Western Pacific in as well as the Gulf of Mexico is streaming into the Deep South in the lower layers of the atmosphere. The picture on the right shows that another source of moisture off the Mexican Coast is feeding the middle levels of the atmosphere. In addition, we have 2 upper level wind jets that are teaming up to support a dynamic atmosphere (lower picture).  

Severe Weather Risk

Because of the dynamics with this system, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area of Enhanced Risk for severe weather for this afternoon and evening for eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, far northeast Louisiana, northern Mississippi and most of northern Alabama. A broad area of Slight Risk Extends from Illinois and Indiana south to Louisiana, Mississippi. Alabama and Georgia.

day1 svr

 

The area in red in the graphic below outlines the area of greatest concern for large hail.

sighail

The greatest concern for tornadoes is across Northern Mississippi and Alabama (area shown in Yellow below.)   

tor probs

In addition to the severe weather, with ample moisture heavy rainfall is also a concern. rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be common especially in the deep South. 


Recommendations

With the treat of tornadoes, double check your supplies in your tornado shelter/safe room. Also make sure you have a way to obtain storm updates and check that you have enough food, water, extra medicines, and etc. Finally consider bringing inside toys outdoor furniture, and vehicles that might be damaged by large hail.

Our Promise

The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.

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