A low pressure system in the Rockies will push into the Southern Plains on Today and into Southern Kansas by Tuesday Morning.
The system will then rapidly pull to the Northeast Tuesday across the central Mississippi River Valley and be centered across the Great Lakes by Wednesday Morning. On the cold side of this system in the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, winter storm to blizzard conditions are expected. However on the warm side of this system, thunderstorms will develop with the heightened risk of severe weather on Tuesday across Dixie Alley.
Some of the ingredients that are fueling a severe weather event include the warm temperatures and high moisture levels. These will combine with the strong upper level dynamics associated with this low pressure system. Highs on Tuesday will be mild for early February with temperatures warming into the Mid 60’s to Mid 70s. In addition steady south to southwest winds, will allow Gulf of Mexico moisture to surge well north into the Ohio River Valley.
Dew points on Tuesday will climb into the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Areas with the Risk for Severe Weather
NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms to include southeastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Western Kentucky and Tennessee, most of Alabama, all of Mississippi, parts of eastern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The area of Enhanced risk for severe weather, which is a higher risk than slight, extends across Western Kentucky and Tennessee into Northern Mississippi and Alabama. The main threat is damaging winds with lines of thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes mainly with individual storms that develop ahead of a thunderstorm squall line.
Timing for Severe Weather
Storms will likely start to develop across Missouri, Arkansas through the late morning on Tuesday, but only a few of these storms are expected to be severe. As daytime temperatures and dew points, climb the atmosphere will become more unstable which will support severe thunderstorm development. For locations along the Mississippi River and east, the timing will be through the afternoon. For areas in central Kentucky, Tennessee and into Alabama, the timing will be more toward the evening hours.
There is still some uncertainty with the timing and coverage of the severe weather so as we move into tomorrow we will have more confidence on how this event will likely evolve.
With the treat of damaging winds and tornadoes, double check your supplies in your tornado shelter/safe room. Also make sure you have a way to obtain storm updates and check that you have enough food, water, extra medicines, and etc. Finally consider bringing inside toys and outdoor furniture that might be easily lofted in strong to severe winds.
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.