Models are in fairly good agreement that the elements for a severe weather event will come together across the Southern and Central Plains on Tuesday.
The one of the players for this event is a low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest.
As it moves onshore and into the Inter-Rocky Mountain region, it will dive south into the Four Corners and amplify the upper air dynamics. This combined with very warm and moist air as well as strong winds will enhance the potential for severe weather especially for supercell development. Tornadoes and very large hail are a possible especially with supercells.
The focused area for highest risk is from southcentral Kansas, through central Oklahoma and into North Central Texas as outlined in the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) outlook for Day 4(Tuesday.)
SPC has been very consistent in outlining this area for the past several days. James Correia Jr tweeted a graphic which highlights the consistency of SPC’s severe weather risk outlook forecast for the past 3 days (starting with the Day 6 outlook issued on Thursday, Day 5 outlook issued on Friday, and the Day 4 outlook issued today – Saturday.)
With the threat of severe weather a few days out, this weekend is a good time to double check your severe weather safety kit and make sure any items such as water and food have not expired from last year. In addition make sure copies of important documents are up to date.
If you do not have a severe weather kit, a plastic bin is a great way to store all of your items through the year. Some items to consider in addition to food and water include: helmets, flashlights (with extra batteries), tennis shoes and socks, leather gloves, hammer, whistle and/ or an air horn, so if you are trapped you can alert people to your location. Also have a change of clothes, extra medicine and don’t forget about rations for your pets including a leash, even for cats; so if they are traumatized you can keep a hold of them. Finally now is a good time to identify a common meeting place close to home in case your family is separated during an event.
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.