A low pressure system will move out of the southern Rockies in to the Plain states today and into Tuesday.
Tonight and Tuesday Forecast
As the low becomes more organized across Texas, it will pull in colder air from the North. While most areas in the southern plains will start off as rain, as temperatures fall the rain will transition to snow. There is still uncertainty with this forecast as models are showing different timing for the surge of subfreezing air. If the cold air comes in earlier, then an increased likelihood for a transition to snow, but if later, then the precipitation shield may move to the east before it can change over to snow.
The best chances of seeing 4 inches and more for this evening through Tuesday Evening extend from central Colorado south into northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
For the threat of significant snows, NWS Forecast offices have issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories across parts of Colorado and New Mexico.
On the warm side of the system across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Deep South the threat of Damaging Winds and Tornadoes is a concern for Tuesday. NWS SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk area for Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle. A Slight Risk area extends from Houston, TX to Jackson, MS; Birmingham, AL; Columbus GA and near Tallahassee, FL.
Tuesday Night and Wednesday Forecast
The atmosphere becomes even more complex for Wednesday as the main low moves northeast in to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys while a second low off the East Coast impacts much of the east.
The better chances for 4 inches and greater of snow for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Evening is across Missouri but lower chances of snow 4 inches and more extends from Texas northeast into Michigan.
With the second low along the east coast, cold air will be pulled into parts of the northeast allowing for the risk of freezing rain. Parts of upstate New York Vermont and New Hampshire have the higher probability of seeing 0.10 or more for Tuesday evening through Wednesday Evening.
For those that have the potential to see accumulating snow and ice, if you plan to travel, double check your car’s winter safety kit, including enough food and water for your passengers. Also consider adding extra weight to your back tires to improve traction and take a bag of sand or kitty litter in case you need get stuck and need to add something “gritty” to the road.
With the threat of damaging winds and tornadoes, double check your supplies in your tornado shelter/safe room. Also make sure you have a way to obtain storm updates and check that you have enough food, water, extra medicines, and etc. Finally consider bringing inside toys and outdoor furniture that might be easily lofted in strong to severe winds.
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.