Tornado Risk in Lower Mississippi River Valley

The Weather pattern will remain very active across the US into the Holiday Weekend.  Concern has increased for the threat of severe weather including tornadoes for parts of the South.  While as of 10 am, thunderstorms were ongoing in parts of Arkansas where Tornado watches are in effect, the stronger activity is expected from early afternoon and into the evening. The NWS Storm Predication Center has a moderate risk for severe weather outlined for Eastern Arkansas, Southeastern Missouri, far Southern Illinois, Southwestern Kentucky, Western Tennessee and Northern Mississippi. The atmosphere has a significant amount of energy. Combine that energy with much above normal temperatures and moisture levels and it will support the development of multiple and potentially intense tornadoes.

 

mod risk updated

 

NWS SPC explanation of the Severe Weather Outlook categories.

NWS SPC explanation of the Severe Weather Outlook categories.

As the cold front moves east, the severe weather threat shifts this evening and into tonight into Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. These regions are outlined in the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas. While tornadoes are still possible, damaging winds and large hails are the main threats.

surface fronts tonight

Surface map and position of the cold front at Midnight tonight.

 

Upper Mississippi River Valley

On the colder, back side of the Low, rain and snow is falling in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. For areas that are cold enough to snow, snowfall totals are will be a couple of inches or less, so roads may be slick at times.  The graphic below highlights the probabilities for areas to see 4 inches or more through Friday Morning.

snowfall

Heavy Rain

In addition to the Severe Weather threat, heavy rain is also possible as the storms move through the south.  Much of the south can expect an inch or more of rain with areas of 2 to 4+ inches expected in parts of the Gulf coast and into the Georgia, South and North Carolina Mountains through Friday Morning. This could lead to flooding problems in these areas.

2 day qpf

Western US

The West Coast and Inter-mountain West will continue to see rain and snow as an upper level system pulls moisture into off the Pacific.  Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in effect for areas the higher accumulations expected.

watches and adv

Holiday Weekend

The system currently impacting the western US will move into the Plain states for the holiday weekend. Concern is increasing for a significant snow storm in the Southern Plains especially in West Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with heavy rainfall in on the warm side of the system.  Below are the forecast rainfall amounts through Monday Morning.

5 day qpf

Preparation Activities

With the threat of tornadoes, double check your supplies in your tornado shelter or safe room/place. Do you have extra batteries, flashlights, etc. in case you lose power? Do you have several ways to obtain storm updates (phone, radio, weather radio, etc.) to know when it is safe to come out of your shelter? Do you have a way to receive weather updates after you go to bed for nighttime tornadoes. Finally,  bring inside any toys, furniture, and outdoor décor and/or deflating any blow up holiday decorations that may become lofted with strong winds or tornadoes.

If you are traveling, have a map to reference where you are in relation to the weather. If you see a storm approaching, take a break from driving and find a sturdy shelter…your car is not an ideal safe place for tornadoes, large hail or strong winds.

For those that are traveling through areas of snow, double check your car’s winter safety kit. Ensure you have extra water, food, and blankets for your entire family including any pets that are with you.

Our Promise

The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.

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