Widespread rain will shift east into the Southeast US today and continue through Wednesday. This is welcomed rainfall with most of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee experiencing Extreme to Exceptional Drought conditions.
When Does the Rain Arrive?
A strong low centered in the Upper Mississippi River Valley and associated cold front extending south into the Southern Plains will be a focus for the rain over the next few days. The rain shield is already well in advance of the cold front with precipitation in the Ohio and Central and Lower Mississippi River Valleys by Midday on Monday (Nov 28th.) This area of rain will move east this afternoon and into tomorrow bringing steady rainfall and even thunderstorms into the Southeastern US for the end of November.
Rainfall totals through Wednesday evening will range between 1 to 4 inches across much of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina with isolated higher amounts.
A Severe Weather Risk Comes With The Rain
Unfortunately given the atmospheric energy associated with this system, an Enhance to Slight Risk of Severe Weather exists today for much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. While the main threat is straight line damaging winds, some storms may produce damaging hail and a tornado is also possible.
The Slight Risk for severe weather shifts east to extend from Alabama to Southern Louisiana on Tuesday. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are possible with the thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Will This Rain Eliminate The Drought?
While widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain in some of the worst drought stricken areas will help, we will not eliminate the drought with a single event. The latest drought monitor issued on November 22, 2016 showed broad areas of Extreme to Exceptional Drought conditions.
The drought began earlier this summer and 3 month rainfall deficits alone are 12+ inches. So it will take a prolonged wet period to eradicate the drought.
Rain Is Good News for Ranchers and Farmers
The good news is this rain is a start, and will bring some relief to for farmers and ranchers that have been facing dried up stock ponds and low lake levels.
The rain will also help those that have battling the devastating wildfires in Georgia and North Carolina.
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.