An active weather pattern continues across the Western and Central US. Another storm system will bring heavy rain and snow to the Western US while Severe Weather and heavy rain impacts the Central US.
Current Weather Pattern
The upper level system that brought the heavy rain to the West Coast over the weekend has shifted slightly south and east into Mexico. This is allow for Pacific as well as Gulf of Mexico moisture to surge into the Southern Plains and the lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a low in the Northern Plains as well as a second low in West Texas are connected by a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are developing east of this system. Farther west, another upper level wave is poised off the Canadian coast and moisture is streaming into Washington, Oregon and Northern California.
Severe Weather Threat
A “Slight” to “Enhanced” Risk of severe weather is in place across Texas and into Oklahoma for today. The surface as well as upper level dynamics mainly support damaging winds and larger hail in the areas outlined as slight risk. In the area outlined as Enhanced Risk, the primary threat is damaging winds, but threat for tornadoes is a little increased in this region.
For this evening (Tuesday) through Wednesday evening, very heavy rain is expected from Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana into Arkansas and Southern Missouri. Widespread 24 hour precipitation amounts will average between 2 and 5 inches with localized higher amounts of 7+ inches possible. For the West Coast, an additional 0.25 to 0.75 inches are possible from Northern California into Washington with pockets of 1.5 to 2 inches.
With the upper low in Mexico very slowly moving east over the next few days, continuous rounds of rain will occur over the Southern Plains and lower and middle Mississippi River Valley. Rainfall amounts for today through Sunday morning will will be widespread of 2 + inches in the Big Bend Region of Texas East to Alabama and into the Ohio River Valley with a large area of 5 to 10 inches in parts of East Texas and Eastern Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas and Southern Missouri.
The West Coast will also see significant precipitation amounts as moisture continues to funnel into the Northwest. Five day totals, especially for the higher terrain near the coast, will be 4 to 10+ inches.
Given the moisture connection to the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, rainfall of 2 + inches per hour will be possible in East Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas into Wednesday, Thus flooding is a concern and Flash Flood Watches are in effect.
River flooding is also a concern especially toward the end of the week for East Texas and the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valleys.
For those individuals currently in an areal or flash flood watch, remain aware of changes in creeks and streams in your area. If you are traveling, avoid routes that cross rivers and creeks that are known to have flooding problems. If a flash flood warning is issued, follow the advice of your local emergency management.
For those in the threat of severe weather, ensure that you remain aware of any severe thunderstorm or tornado watches or warnings that may be issued for your area and move to a secure location immediately. If you do not have a tornado shelter, find an interior room on the lowest floor. (I.e. avoid rooms with windows; you want as many walls as possible between you and the outdoors.)
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.