Weather Set up
A series of systems will impact the Central and Eastern US over the next few days.
The low currently moving across Oklahoma will help set the stage and pull Gulf moisture into the Middle Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys as it pulls slowly southeast through tomorrow evening. A second low in the Pacific Northwest currently causing snow will dive Southeast across the Rockies and be in Colorado/New Mexico/Western Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. This system will move east across Texas and into Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday. This second low will actually be the more dominate player in the weather pattern.
This second low will rapidly intensify across Alabama and Georgia on Friday and then move to just off the East Coast on Saturday. There is still some uncertainty on the track of this second low, especially as it moves of and northeast along the east coast and how the cold air will surge on the back side of the system. However confidence is increasing that the subfreezing air will be pulled in on the west side of the low to allow for a transition to snow. How far South and East the subfreezing air will be able to infiltrate is a big part of the question for accumulation amounts.
With the first system, 4 inches and more of snow fall is possible from Southern Illinois to South Central Kentucky, and Northern Tennessee through Wednesday evening.
With the second system, the increase risk of snow for Thursday evening to Friday evening is from Southwestern Kentucky through West Virginia and into Western Virginia.
For Saturday, with the expected track of the low just off the Atlantic Coast, the highest risk for several inches of snow and sleet is from Southern Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Southern Pennsylvania and into New York. This includes cities such as Washington DC, Baltimore, Wilmington, Philadelphia and New York City.
Freezing Rain Potential
In addition to the snow, with both of these systems we will also see a potential of freezing rain. The main focus for accumulations greater than 0.10 inches extends from Northern Arkansas east to Kentucky and parts of Northern Alabama and Georgia through Thursday evening for a 48 hour forecast.
For the 48 hour period of Wednesday evening to Friday evening, the risk for freezing rain extends from Northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri but extends farther east into North Carolina and Virginia.
Total liquid water with these two systems will range from 1.5 inches to around 2.5+ inches of liquid water. So if areas see mainly all snow, this could lead to significant accumulations.
Current Winter Advisories and Warnings
For the first system and the initial impacts of the second system, winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings extend from Iowa and Kansas east to northern Georgia, North Carolina, western Virginia, Kentucky and Southern Ohio.
For those that may be impacted by the snow and ice, double check your home storm kit to ensure that you are prepared if you lose power? Also, if your home is heated by electricity, do you have alternate sources of heat which may include logs for a fireplace.
If you are traveling through areas of snow and ice, double check your car’s winter safety kit. Ensure you have extra water, food, and blankets for your entire family including any pets that are with you. If you can take a route that allows you to avoid the winter weather, that may be a better option.
The team at WxIntegrations will continue to provide relevant information and resources to help you better understand and prepare by incorporating weather impacts into your planning and response.